25-6 Terminal-Crisis Indicators, Thresholds, and Guarding against Misjudgment

SECTION FOCUS
Establishes a dashboard of indicators for the continuous observation of regime stability, identifying anomalies in succession, public finance, the military and police, and social control, while guarding against mistaking isolated incidents, online sentiment, or wishful judgment for the fact of collapse. 25-6-1

📑 CH-025.6.1 25-6-1 Top Leaders’ Public Appearances, Anomalies in Appointments and Removals, and Succession SignalsOpen item →

📦 CH-025.6.1.1 25-6-1-1 Top Leaders’ Public Appearances, Anomalies in Appointments and Removals, and Succession Signals: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-025.6.1.1.01　25-6-1-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-025.6.1.1.02　25-6-1-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-025.6.1.1.03　25-6-1-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-025.6.1.1.04　25-6-1-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-025.6.1.1.05　25-6-1-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes

📦 CH-025.6.1.2 25-6-1-2 Top Leaders’ Public Appearances, Anomalies in Appointments and Removals, and Succession Signals: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-025.6.1.2.01　25-6-1-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-025.6.1.2.02　25-6-1-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-025.6.1.2.03　25-6-1-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-025.6.1.2.04　25-6-1-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-025.6.1.2.05　25-6-1-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 25-6-2

📑 CH-025.6.2 25-6-2 Fiscal Shutdown, Wage Arrears, Bank Runs, and Anomalies in Payment ChainsOpen item →

📦 CH-025.6.2.1 25-6-2-1 Fiscal Shutdown, Wage Arrears, Bank Runs, and Anomalies in Payment Chains: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-025.6.2.1.01　25-6-2-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-025.6.2.1.02　25-6-2-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-025.6.2.1.03　25-6-2-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-025.6.2.1.04　25-6-2-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-025.6.2.1.05　25-6-2-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes

📦 CH-025.6.2.2 25-6-2-2 Fiscal Shutdown, Wage Arrears, Bank Runs, and Anomalies in Payment Chains: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-025.6.2.2.01　25-6-2-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-025.6.2.2.02　25-6-2-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-025.6.2.2.03　25-6-2-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-025.6.2.2.04　25-6-2-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-025.6.2.2.05　25-6-2-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 25-6-3

📑 CH-025.6.3 25-6-3 Troop and Police Movements, Command Reshuffles, and Anomalous Declarations of LoyaltyOpen item →

📦 CH-025.6.3.1 25-6-3-1 Troop and Police Movements, Command Reshuffles, and Anomalous Declarations of Loyalty: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-025.6.3.1.01　25-6-3-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-025.6.3.1.02　25-6-3-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-025.6.3.1.03　25-6-3-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-025.6.3.1.04　25-6-3-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-025.6.3.1.05　25-6-3-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes

📦 CH-025.6.3.2 25-6-3-2 Troop and Police Movements, Command Reshuffles, and Anomalous Declarations of Loyalty: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-025.6.3.2.01　25-6-3-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-025.6.3.2.02　25-6-3-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-025.6.3.2.03　25-6-3-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-025.6.3.2.04　25-6-3-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-025.6.3.2.05　25-6-3-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 25-6-4

📑 CH-025.6.4 25-6-4 Large-Scale Mass Incidents, Communications Blackouts, and Signals of Cross-Regional CoordinationOpen item →

📦 CH-025.6.4.1 25-6-4-1 Large-Scale Mass Incidents, Communications Blackouts, and Signals of Cross-Regional Coordination: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-025.6.4.1.01　25-6-4-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-025.6.4.1.02　25-6-4-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-025.6.4.1.03　25-6-4-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-025.6.4.1.04　25-6-4-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-025.6.4.1.05　25-6-4-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes

📦 CH-025.6.4.2 25-6-4-2 Large-Scale Mass Incidents, Communications Blackouts, and Signals of Cross-Regional Coordination: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-025.6.4.2.01　25-6-4-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-025.6.4.2.02　25-6-4-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-025.6.4.2.03　25-6-4-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-025.6.4.2.04　25-6-4-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-025.6.4.2.05　25-6-4-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes