27-3 Scenario Three: Intra-Party Turnover, a Palace Coup, and Authoritarian Reinvention

SECTION FOCUS
Studies the policy changes that may result from intra-Party ouster, forced retirement, a palace coup, or a reshuffling of military and police power, and remains wary of an authoritarian reconstitution that “changes the leader but not the system.” 27-3-1

📑 CH-027.3.1 27-3-1 Intra-Party Ouster, Forced Transfer of Power, and the Restoration of Collective LeadershipOpen item →

📦 CH-027.3.1.1 27-3-1-1 Intra-Party Ouster, Forced Transfer of Power, and the Restoration of Collective Leadership: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.3.1.1.01　27-3-1-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.3.1.1.02　27-3-1-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.3.1.1.03　27-3-1-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.3.1.1.04　27-3-1-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.3.1.1.05　27-3-1-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes

📦 CH-027.3.1.2 27-3-1-2 Intra-Party Ouster, Forced Transfer of Power, and the Restoration of Collective Leadership: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.3.1.2.01　27-3-1-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.3.1.2.02　27-3-1-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.3.1.2.03　27-3-1-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.3.1.2.04　27-3-1-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.3.1.2.05　27-3-1-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 27-3-2

📑 CH-027.3.2 27-3-2 Military and Police Intervention, an Emergency Committee, and the Reorganization of PowerOpen item →

📦 CH-027.3.2.1 27-3-2-1 Military and Police Intervention, an Emergency Committee, and the Reorganization of Power: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.3.2.1.01　27-3-2-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.3.2.1.02　27-3-2-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.3.2.1.03　27-3-2-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.3.2.1.04　27-3-2-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.3.2.1.05　27-3-2-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes

📦 CH-027.3.2.2 27-3-2-2 Military and Police Intervention, an Emergency Committee, and the Reorganization of Power: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.3.2.2.01　27-3-2-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.3.2.2.02　27-3-2-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.3.2.2.03　27-3-2-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.3.2.2.04　27-3-2-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.3.2.2.05　27-3-2-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 27-3-3

📑 CH-027.3.3 27-3-3 Restarting Limited Reform in the Name of Reform and OpeningOpen item →

📦 CH-027.3.3.1 27-3-3-1 Restarting Limited Reform in the Name of Reform and Opening: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.3.3.1.01　27-3-3-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.3.3.1.02　27-3-3-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.3.3.1.03　27-3-3-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.3.3.1.04　27-3-3-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.3.3.1.05　27-3-3-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes

📦 CH-027.3.3.2 27-3-3-2 Restarting Limited Reform in the Name of Reform and Opening: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.3.3.2.01　27-3-3-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.3.3.2.02　27-3-3-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.3.3.2.03　27-3-3-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.3.3.2.04　27-3-3-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.3.3.2.05　27-3-3-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 27-3-4

📑 CH-027.3.4 27-3-4 The Risk of a New Strongman, a Military Government, or the Party-State Prolonging Its LifeOpen item →

📦 CH-027.3.4.1 27-3-4-1 The Risk of a New Strongman, a Military Government, or the Party-State Prolonging Its Life: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.3.4.1.01　27-3-4-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.3.4.1.02　27-3-4-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.3.4.1.03　27-3-4-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.3.4.1.04　27-3-4-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.3.4.1.05　27-3-4-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes

📦 CH-027.3.4.2 27-3-4-2 The Risk of a New Strongman, a Military Government, or the Party-State Prolonging Its Life: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.3.4.2.01　27-3-4-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.3.4.2.02　27-3-4-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.3.4.2.03　27-3-4-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.3.4.2.04　27-3-4-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.3.4.2.05　27-3-4-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes