27-4 Scenario Four: War in the Taiwan Strait, Military Defeat, and the Breakdown of the Command System

SECTION FOCUS
Studies the shocks to the regime — from sanctions, military defeat, a strike on or incapacitation of the supreme command system, wavering military morale, and armistice negotiations — after the CCP launches a war in the Taiwan Strait or another major conflict. 27-4-1

📑 CH-027.4.1 27-4-1 The Decision to Take Taiwan by Force, War Mobilization, and Domestic ControlOpen item →

📦 CH-027.4.1.1 27-4-1-1 The Decision to Take Taiwan by Force, War Mobilization, and Domestic Control: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.4.1.1.01　27-4-1-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.4.1.1.02　27-4-1-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.4.1.1.03　27-4-1-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.4.1.1.04　27-4-1-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.4.1.1.05　27-4-1-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes

📦 CH-027.4.1.2 27-4-1-2 The Decision to Take Taiwan by Force, War Mobilization, and Domestic Control: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.4.1.2.01　27-4-1-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.4.1.2.02　27-4-1-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.4.1.2.03　27-4-1-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.4.1.2.04　27-4-1-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.4.1.2.05　27-4-1-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 27-4-2

📑 CH-027.4.2 27-4-2 International Security Response, Lawful Defense, Sanctions and Blockade, and Economic ShockOpen item →

📦 CH-027.4.2.1 27-4-2-1 International Military Reaction, Sanctions and Blockade, and Economic Shock: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.4.2.1.01　27-4-2-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.4.2.1.02　27-4-2-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.4.2.1.03　27-4-2-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.4.2.1.04　27-4-2-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.4.2.1.05　27-4-2-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes

📦 CH-027.4.2.2 27-4-2-2 International Military Reaction, Sanctions and Blockade, and Economic Shock: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.4.2.2.01　27-4-2-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.4.2.2.02　27-4-2-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.4.2.2.03　27-4-2-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.4.2.2.04　27-4-2-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.4.2.2.05　27-4-2-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 27-4-3

📑 CH-027.4.3 27-4-3 Military Defeat, Concealment of Casualties, Military and Popular Morale, and the Struggle over ResponsibilityOpen item →

📦 CH-027.4.3.1 27-4-3-1 Military Defeat, Concealment of Casualties, Military and Popular Morale, and the Struggle over Responsibility: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.4.3.1.01　27-4-3-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.4.3.1.02　27-4-3-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.4.3.1.03　27-4-3-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.4.3.1.04　27-4-3-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.4.3.1.05　27-4-3-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes

📦 CH-027.4.3.2 27-4-3-2 Military Defeat, Concealment of Casualties, Military and Popular Morale, and the Struggle over Responsibility: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.4.3.2.01　27-4-3-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.4.3.2.02　27-4-3-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.4.3.2.03　27-4-3-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.4.3.2.04　27-4-3-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.4.3.2.05　27-4-3-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 27-4-4

📑 CH-027.4.4 27-4-4 Incapacitation of the Supreme Command, Ceasefire Arrangements, and a Window for Political TransitionOpen item →

📦 CH-027.4.4.1 27-4-4-1 Incapacitation of the Supreme Command, Ceasefire Arrangements, and a Window for Political Transition: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.4.4.1.01　27-4-4-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.4.4.1.02　27-4-4-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.4.4.1.03　27-4-4-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.4.4.1.04　27-4-4-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.4.4.1.05　27-4-4-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes

📦 CH-027.4.4.2 27-4-4-2 Incapacitation of the Supreme Command, Ceasefire Arrangements, and a Window for Political Transition: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)

• 🗄 CH-027.4.4.2.01　27-4-4-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
• 🗄 CH-027.4.4.2.02　27-4-4-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
• 🗄 CH-027.4.4.2.03　27-4-4-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
• 🗄 CH-027.4.4.2.04　27-4-4-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
• 🗄 CH-027.4.4.2.05　27-4-4-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes