27-6 Scenarios Six through Nine: The Risk of Social Violence, a Negotiated Transfer, International Support, and Democratic Exits
This section: 4 items. Expand item → package; each package holds five fixed folders.
SECTION FOCUS
Studies the various branches ranging from the frequent occurrence of the “xianzhong” discourse (indiscriminate revenge killing) and retaliatory incidents, mass conflict, the splitting of the military and police, and the loss of local control, to negotiations inside and outside the system, international mediation, humanitarian and security cooperation, the return of the Republic’s legal legitimacy, or democratic constitution-making. It focuses on comparing whether the chain of violence is interrupted, whether the Party-state’s monopoly is ended, whether state capacity is preserved, whether international support abides by the law, and whether ultimate power is at last entrusted to the free mandate of the Chinese people. 27-6-1
Studies the various branches ranging from the frequent occurrence of the “xianzhong” discourse (indiscriminate revenge killing) and retaliatory incidents, mass conflict, the splitting of the military and police, and the loss of local control, to negotiations inside and outside the system, international mediation, humanitarian and security cooperation, the return of the Republic’s legal legitimacy, or democratic constitution-making. It focuses on comparing whether the chain of violence is interrupted, whether the Party-state’s monopoly is ended, whether state capacity is preserved, whether international support abides by the law, and whether ultimate power is at last entrusted to the free mandate of the Chinese people. 27-6-1
Catalog (progressive expansion)
📑 CH-027.6.1 27-6-1 Risk Scenarios of Frequent “Xianzhong” (Indiscriminate Revenge Killing) Incidents, the Spread of Revenge, Mass Conflict, and a Bottom-Up Violent UpheavalOpen item →
📦 CH-027.6.1.1 27-6-1-1 Frequent “Xianzhong” (Indiscriminate Revenge Killing) Incidents, the Spread of Revenge, Mass Conflict, and Bottom-Up Violent Upheaval: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.6.1.1.01 27-6-1-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.6.1.1.02 27-6-1-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.6.1.1.03 27-6-1-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.6.1.1.04 27-6-1-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.6.1.1.05 27-6-1-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes
📦 CH-027.6.1.2 27-6-1-2 Frequent “Xianzhong” (Indiscriminate Revenge Killing) Incidents, the Spread of Revenge, Mass Conflict, and Bottom-Up Violent Upheaval: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.6.1.2.01 27-6-1-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.6.1.2.02 27-6-1-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.6.1.2.03 27-6-1-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.6.1.2.04 27-6-1-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.6.1.2.05 27-6-1-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 27-6-2
📑 CH-027.6.2 27-6-2 Negotiation inside and outside the System, Halting Repression and Ceasefire, the Release of Political Prisoners, and International MediationOpen item →
📦 CH-027.6.2.1 27-6-2-1 Negotiation inside and outside the System, Halting Repression and Ceasefire, the Release of Political Prisoners, and International Mediation: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.6.2.1.01 27-6-2-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.6.2.1.02 27-6-2-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.6.2.1.03 27-6-2-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.6.2.1.04 27-6-2-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.6.2.1.05 27-6-2-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes
📦 CH-027.6.2.2 27-6-2-2 Negotiation inside and outside the System, Halting Repression and Ceasefire, the Release of Political Prisoners, and International Mediation: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.6.2.2.01 27-6-2-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.6.2.2.02 27-6-2-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.6.2.2.03 27-6-2-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.6.2.2.04 27-6-2-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.6.2.2.05 27-6-2-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 27-6-3
📑 CH-027.6.3 27-6-3 Strategic Security, Humanitarian Relief, Refugees and Borders, and Conditional Assistance from Democratic NationsOpen item →
📦 CH-027.6.3.1 27-6-3-1 Strategic Security, Humanitarian Relief, Refugees and Borders, and Conditional Assistance from Democratic Nations: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.6.3.1.01 27-6-3-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.6.3.1.02 27-6-3-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.6.3.1.03 27-6-3-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.6.3.1.04 27-6-3-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.6.3.1.05 27-6-3-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes
📦 CH-027.6.3.2 27-6-3-2 Strategic Security, Humanitarian Relief, Refugees and Borders, and Conditional Assistance from Democratic Nations: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.6.3.2.01 27-6-3-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.6.3.2.02 27-6-3-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.6.3.2.03 27-6-3-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.6.3.2.04 27-6-3-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.6.3.2.05 27-6-3-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 27-6-4
📑 CH-027.6.4 27-6-4 Exits via the Return of Republican Legal Legitimacy, an Interim Charter, or Democratic Constitution-MakingOpen item →
📦 CH-027.6.4.1 27-6-4-1 Exits via the Return of Republican Legal Legitimacy, an Interim Charter, or Democratic Constitution-Making: Facts, Indicators, Timelines, and Primary Evidence (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.6.4.1.01 27-6-4-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.6.4.1.02 27-6-4-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.6.4.1.03 27-6-4-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.6.4.1.04 27-6-4-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.6.4.1.05 27-6-4-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes
📦 CH-027.6.4.2 27-6-4-2 Exits via the Return of Republican Legal Legitimacy, an Interim Charter, or Democratic Constitution-Making: Harm Consequences, Chain of Responsibility, Risk Assessment, and Early Warning (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.6.4.2.01 27-6-4-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.6.4.2.02 27-6-4-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.6.4.2.03 27-6-4-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.6.4.2.04 27-6-4-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.6.4.2.05 27-6-4-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes