27-7 Scenario Comparison and Dynamic Updating: Probabilities, Triggers, Branches, and Policy Stress Testing
This section: 4 items. Expand item → package; each package holds five fixed folders.
SECTION FOCUS
This section builds dynamic models for the various kinds of regime upheaval: rather than writing predictions as definite conclusions, it makes public the baseline assumptions, triggers, principal actors, branching paths, risks to civilians, and policy responses, and adjusts probabilities and conclusions as new material arrives. COMPOUND SCENARIOS. An upheaval in reality is more likely to be a compound event than a textbook single path. For example, a fiscal crisis may coincide with a surge in violent incidents, loss of local control, and a coup within the Party; defeat in war may likewise trigger the fracturing of the military and police, international intervention, and a negotiated handover. The database must record the mutual reinforcement, mutual inhibition, sequence, and turning points among scenarios. 27-7-1
This section builds dynamic models for the various kinds of regime upheaval: rather than writing predictions as definite conclusions, it makes public the baseline assumptions, triggers, principal actors, branching paths, risks to civilians, and policy responses, and adjusts probabilities and conclusions as new material arrives. COMPOUND SCENARIOS. An upheaval in reality is more likely to be a compound event than a textbook single path. For example, a fiscal crisis may coincide with a surge in violent incidents, loss of local control, and a coup within the Party; defeat in war may likewise trigger the fracturing of the military and police, international intervention, and a negotiated handover. The database must record the mutual reinforcement, mutual inhibition, sequence, and turning points among scenarios. 27-7-1
Catalog (progressive expansion)
📑 CH-027.7.1 27-7-1 The Baseline Scenario, Key Assumptions, Leading Indicators, and Probability RangesOpen item →
📦 CH-027.7.1.1 27-7-1-1 The Baseline Scenario, Key Assumptions, Leading Indicators, and Probability Ranges: Current Conditions, Comparative Experience, Proposals, and Primary Materials (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.7.1.1.01 27-7-1-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.7.1.1.02 27-7-1-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.7.1.1.03 27-7-1-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.7.1.1.04 27-7-1-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.7.1.1.05 27-7-1-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes
📦 CH-027.7.1.2 27-7-1-2 The Baseline Scenario, Key Assumptions, Leading Indicators, and Probability Ranges: Conditions of Implementation, Risks, Public Authorization, and Policy Application (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.7.1.2.01 27-7-1-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.7.1.2.02 27-7-1-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.7.1.2.03 27-7-1-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.7.1.2.04 27-7-1-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.7.1.2.05 27-7-1-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 27-7-2
📑 CH-027.7.2 27-7-2 Triggers Such as Leadership Upheaval, War Defeat, Fiscal Collapse, and the Spread of ResistanceOpen item →
📦 CH-027.7.2.1 27-7-2-1 Triggers Such as Leadership Upheaval, War Defeat, Fiscal Collapse, and the Spread of Resistance: Current Conditions, Comparative Experience, Proposals, and Primary Materials (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.7.2.1.01 27-7-2-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.7.2.1.02 27-7-2-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.7.2.1.03 27-7-2-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.7.2.1.04 27-7-2-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.7.2.1.05 27-7-2-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes
📦 CH-027.7.2.2 27-7-2-2 Triggers Such as Leadership Upheaval, War Defeat, Fiscal Collapse, and the Spread of Resistance: Conditions of Implementation, Risks, Public Authorization, and Policy Application (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.7.2.2.01 27-7-2-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.7.2.2.02 27-7-2-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.7.2.2.03 27-7-2-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.7.2.2.04 27-7-2-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.7.2.2.05 27-7-2-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 27-7-3
📑 CH-027.7.3 27-7-3 Response Branches of the Party, Government, Military, Police, Localities, Society, and International ActorsOpen item →
📦 CH-027.7.3.1 27-7-3-1 Response Branches of the Party, Government, Military, Police, Localities, Society, and International Actors: Current Conditions, Comparative Experience, Proposals, and Primary Materials (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.7.3.1.01 27-7-3-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.7.3.1.02 27-7-3-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.7.3.1.03 27-7-3-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.7.3.1.04 27-7-3-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.7.3.1.05 27-7-3-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes
📦 CH-027.7.3.2 27-7-3-2 Response Branches of the Party, Government, Military, Police, Localities, Society, and International Actors: Conditions of Implementation, Risks, Public Authorization, and Policy Application (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.7.3.2.01 27-7-3-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.7.3.2.02 27-7-3-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.7.3.2.03 27-7-3-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.7.3.2.04 27-7-3-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.7.3.2.05 27-7-3-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes 27-7-4
📑 CH-027.7.4 27-7-4 Protection of Civilians, State Continuity, Foreign Policy, and Worst-Case Stress TestingOpen item →
📦 CH-027.7.4.1 27-7-4-1 Protection of Civilians, State Continuity, Foreign Policy, and Worst-Case Stress Testing: Current Conditions, Comparative Experience, Proposals, and Primary Materials (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.7.4.1.01 27-7-4-1-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.7.4.1.02 27-7-4-1-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.7.4.1.03 27-7-4-1-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.7.4.1.04 27-7-4-1-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.7.4.1.05 27-7-4-1-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes
📦 CH-027.7.4.2 27-7-4-2 Protection of Civilians, State Continuity, Foreign Policy, and Worst-Case Stress Testing: Conditions of Implementation, Risks, Public Authorization, and Policy Application (5 folders)
- 🗄 CH-027.7.4.2.01 27-7-4-2-1 Factual timelines; statistical indicators; triggers; figures and institutions; and core summaries
- 🗄 CH-027.7.4.2.02 27-7-4-2-2 Civilian risks; behavioral consequences; state continuity; chain of responsibility; and alternative explanations
- 🗄 CH-027.7.4.2.03 27-7-4-2-3 Primary documents; data charts; cartographic models; images, audio, and video; and web-page archives
- 🗄 CH-027.7.4.2.04 27-7-4-2-4 Underlying assumptions; evidence levels; AI verification; human review; counter-evidence; and falsification conditions
- 🗄 CH-027.7.4.2.05 27-7-4-2-5 Scenario assessments; probability ranges; early-warning policy; update logs; and public notes