26-8-4-2-5 Public authorization; oversight and exit; policy application; and derivative works for public communication CHAPTER 27 A Scenario Tree for the CCP’s Loss of Power, Dissolution, and the End of the Regime CPSU-Style Dissolution, Leadership Incapacitation, Intra-Party Split, War Defeat, Loss of Central Control, and Social Shock (Future Scenarios) CORE ARGUMENT OF THIS CHAPTER. This chapter builds a “scenario tree” rather than a single prophecy, and it does not treat the peaceful dissolution the authors most hope for as the most likely scenario. It separately catalogs the continuation of high-pressure rule, the natural death or incapacitation of the leader, intra-party reform, a palace coup, military defeat, fiscal collapse, loss of central control, the escalating spread of successive “xianzhong” (indiscriminate revenge killing) and revenge incidents, popular uprising, the splintering of the military and police, the emergence of multiple local power centers, a negotiated transfer, and democratic transition—while allowing these to combine. Each scenario documents its triggering factors, leading indicators, frequency and scale, key actors, civilian risk, state continuity, the security of strategic weapons, international response, democratic exits, and failure branches. CONCRETE ENTRY POINT. The incapacitation of the top leader, a reshuffling of power within the Party, defeat in war, a financial rupture, or a string of seemingly isolated acts of violence suddenly crossing the threshold of imitation could each alter the lives of hundreds of millions in a short span of time. The scenario tree must lay on the table, in advance, the triggers, branches, chain reactions, and worst-case consequences that one would rather not see but that could nonetheless occur. SCOPE AND CLASSIFICATION BOUNDARY. Scenario analysis is not the same as assertion, still less as plotting assassination, coup, war, riot, or sabotage. Content involving an attack on the top leader, military strikes, the defection of the military and police, popular uprising, or the violent elimination of the CCP must be studied in terms of public facts, social roots, international law, political consequences, risks to civilians, and crisis management, and must not be deleted from the scenario tree merely because it is sensitive; but no executable targets, routes, weapons, weak points, covert contacts, or steps of action may be stored or published　Folder · PG-E

ID CH-026.8.4.2.05

Materials list

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